At Least the Bench Got Better

That pesky player to be named later was dealt again by the Phillies, this time to the Pirates for outfielder Corey Dickerson. He's a gold glover with an OPS over .900 this season, and he'll make the bench better. But it might be awhile since he has a groin injury and will be eased into action. Dickerson's arrival probably means a trip to Lehigh Valley for Nick Williams or Roman Quinn.

And to wrap up Trade Deadline Day, the Phils acquired righthander Dan Straily who will be sent to Triple A. Straily's numbers are flat-out ugly this year - 9.82 ERA with a WHIP just a hair under 2. But I guess they figured another visit to the garbage pile might land them a serviceable arm.

But the teams in front of the Phillies in the NL East were a lot busier. The Braves picked up not 1, but 2 closers when they acquired Shane Greene from the Tigers and Mark Melancon from the Giants. And on Tuesday, they picked up reliever Chris Martin from Coldplay the Rangers.

The Nationals tried to fix their terrible bullpen by adding Daniel Hudson, Roenis Elias, and Hunter Strickland, who has a colorful past with a current Phillie. In 2017, he hit Bryce Harper with a pitch that set off a brawl and was suspended for 6 games.

And speaking of bullpens, the Phils took another hit when David Robertson announced he was going to have season-ending surgery to keep his arm from falling off or some such nonsense. That means all 3 big-ticket relievers the Phils acquired over the last 2 years–Robertson, Pat Neshak, and Tommy Hunter are out of action. At least Neshak and Hunter come off the books after the end of the season. And nobody knows if Robertson will be able to pitch next year. Yay.

So the Phils added a pair of middling starting pitchers and nothing for the bullpen. Unless you count the demotions of starters Nick Pivetta and Zach Eflin as additions.

I like the Dickerson deal and so far Drew Smyly has been a huge surprise. But they really needed to add a dependable starter and a solid bullpen arm. But given the history with Robertson and Co., I can see why they might have been a little gunshy.

The Phils improved their bench a bit. But the Braves and Nationals did more to try and fix what ails them. And that might cost the Phils a chance at the playoffs. 

Smyly Faces

The Phillies picked Drew Smyly off the scrap heap, tinkered with his pitch selection, and poof–instant effective starting pitcher. Smyly threw 7 shutout innings last night, giving up just 4 hits and a walk. The bullpen managed to keep things mostly in check, and Smyly got his first win as a Phillie.

In 2 starts for the Phillies, Smyly has an ERA of 0.69 and a WHIP of 0.85. He has a 12-inning scoreless streak. He's not even remotely like the same guy Texas released after recording an 8.42 ERA. With the Rangers, opponents hit .299 with 19 homers in 51.1 innings. With the Phils, opponents are hitting just .186.

The big question is this–if minor tweaks can fix Drew Smyly, why can't they fix Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, and Zach Eflin? Maybe Smyly is finally healthy after Tommy John surgery and the issues with the other 3 are more between the ears.

Phils Get an Arm

Considering the final price, the Phillies could have gotten Marcus Stroman. Instead, they got left-handed starter Jason Vargas (above) from the Mets. Why? The pitching, aside from Aaron Nola, has been not good. Jason Vargas is not very good. He'll fit right in.

Vargas is 36 and has a career 4.26 ERA and is at 4.01 this year. He's given up 81 hits (14 homers) and 39 walks in 94 innings. And all he cost was the Double A version of Andrew Knapp, a backup catcher hitting below .200. And the Mets are sending the Phils money to help defray the salary.

The reason they didn't go for Stroman is because they don't want to give up any prospects. Considering what the Mets paid to get him, they could have offered Adonis Medina, Nick Williams, and another minor league piece and not emptied the cupboard. Maybe Mickey Moniak, but not any of the big three of Alec Bohm, Spencer Howard, or Adam Haseley. I'd make that deal in a heatbeat.

It's a case of the Phillies valuing their prospects way more than anyone else. Or maybe they're being realistic and figuring this just isn't their year.

Ugly Weekend Continues

If you're going to outfit your team in god-awful head-to-toe burgundy uniforms, it shouldn't come as a surprise when the outcome is equally ugly. Ugly doesn't even cover it as the Braves crushed the Phils, 15-7. And it wasn't even that close.

It was 14-1 after 5 innings. Starting pitcher Zach Eflin was the latest victim, getting torched for 10 runs in 2.2 innings, allowing 7 hits (including 2 homers) and 4 walks. You want more ugly? In his last 7 starts, Eflin is 1-5 with a 9.09 ERA, giving up 33 runs and 52 hits (9 of them home runs) in 32.2 innings. That's Eflin ugly and I wouldn't be surprised to see him either get sent down or moved to the injured list.

I was stunned to learn that the Phils actually have a winning record (18-17) this season in games decided by 5 or more runs. But it was the sixth time the Phils have allowed at least 9 runs to the Braves this season and they've been outscored 85-57 in their 11 games to date.

The Phils had a chance to cut the distance between themselves and the Braves in the National League East this weekend. Now, they have to win today to limit the damage to just losing a single game in the standings. 

Finding a Positive

Last night's series opener against the Braves was an absolute disaster. Virutally nothing good to report about the Phillies in a lifeless 9-2 loss. Six hitters left 2 or more runners on base. They got 12 hits and only scored twice. They were 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position.

So I found something positive to talk about. Unfortunately, I had to drop all the way down to Double A ball to to find it. Top pitching prospect Spencer Howard made his debut with Reading last night and he was fantastic. He struck out 10 of the 20 batters he faced (including the first 4) and walked 2 while allowing 4 hits in 4.2 innings of work. He threw 82 pitches, 55 for strikes. The 22-year-old righthander's fastball topped out at 98 mph.

So when you think about the less-than-stellar performances of Jake Arrieta and Cole Irvin from last night, remember that there's help just 2 levels down from the big leagues. I don't know if that's comforting or depressing.

BIGGEST SERIES OF THE SEASON

Remember that Monday night game against the Dodgers about a week and a half ago? The one where the Dodgers kicked the living crap out of the Phillies, 16-2? The one that left the Phils 9 1/2 games out of first place?

Since then, the Phils have gone 6-2 and picked up 4 games in the standings. And as luck would have it, the first-place Atlanta Braves are in Philly this weekend for THE BIGGEST SERIES OF THE SEASON SO FAR.

I apologize for shouting in all caps. But this is big. Really big. Sweep the Braves and the Phils are just 2 1/2 games out of first. Take 2 out of 3 and they pick up a game and are 4 1/2 out. Get swept? Back to borderline irrelevance and 8 1/2 games out.

Braves ace Mike Soroka goes against Jake Arrieta tonight. Soroka has been smacked around a bit in his last 7 starts, allowing 18 runs and 48 hits in just 37 innings. He gave up 4 runs and 9 hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Phils on July 4.

Saturday features Max Fried against Zach Eflin and Fried has also struggled in his last 7, giving up 20 runs and 45 hits in 37 2/3 innings. And the Phils will be wearing the ugly-in-the-dark all burgundy uniforms worn just once, back in 1979.

Sunday is Nola Day, with the Phillies ace facing Kevin Gausman, who has been torched for 26 runs and 45 hits in 33 inning with an ERA well over 6.

The Phils are getting the Braves at a really opportune time. The Phils are hot, the Braves have been mediocre of late. Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper are hot. Hoskins is hitting .429 with a 1.315 OPS in his last 3 games, while Harper has 10 RBI in his last 15 games.

I like the Phils chances to win at least 2 out of 3 this weekend. The Phils enter tonight with a 54-48 record. That's the same 102-game record they had in 1980 and in 2008. We know what those teams did. Yeah, I know it's a meaningless comparison, but I had to throw it out there.

The Other 62

The old baseball axiom goes like this–you're gonna win 50 and you're gonna lose 50. It's the other 62 you have to worry about. Well, with 100 games in the books for the Phillies, welcome to the other 62.

The Phils are 52-48 and find themselves in third place, 7.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves. They're tied with the Cardinals, 1/2 game out of the second wild card spot, currently held by the Brewers. The Nationals have the other wild card spot.

If the Phillies are going to make the playoffs, it's going to be by way of the wild card. I don't see the Phils getting hot enough to overtake the Braves; they've been too inconsistent. The Phils would need to go something like 42-20 the rest of the way to have any shot at all of topping Atlanta.

Thirty-two of those games are on the road, with 30 at home. Thirty-seven of the games are against teams that are currently .500 or below. They have 10 games left with the Braves, 6 with Miami, 6 with the Mets, and 5 with the Nationals.

To have any shot at all of playing baseball in October, they need to beat those teams at .500 or below. 25-12 against those teams will do a lot to send them in that direction. But those 10 against the Braves, including 7 in September, will probably decide if the Phils play in October or not.

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I didn't like the signing of Drew Smyly and I'm still not crazy about. But he pitched pretty well yesterday against the Pirates, allowing just 1 run, 4 hits, and 2 walks in 6 innings of work. He struck out 8, most of them with his curveball which moves like a screwball. Lefthanders, right? If Smyly can keep this up, this team might have a chance.

Drew Freaking Smyly?

So Nick Pivetta wasn't happy with his demotion to the bullpen. But he got that demotion the old-fashioned way–he earned it. In his last 3 starts, he's pitched a total of 13 innings and allowed 10 runs.

And the Phillies are replacing him in the rotation with the deepest of dumpster dives, Drew Smyly. He'll fit right in. Smyly has been released by 2 teams already this season, and has an ERA of 8.42. Oof. Smyly has allowed 64 hits and 34 walks in 51 innings. That's almost 2 baserunners per inning. Double oof. Hey, but at least he's left-handed.

I know this a low-risk move, but there has to be somebody, anybody better than this guy out there someplace. One of the minor league guys like Cole Irvin or Enyel De Los Santos. Or Guy Smiley (pictured above) from Sesame Street. Maybe they think pitching coach Chris Young can fix Smyly. Given the "success" of the Phillies pitching staff this season, I wouldn't count on it.

Smyly used to be an OK pitcher. But he had Tommy John surgery and missed all of the 2016 and 2017 seasons while recovering. And his numbers this season show he's still finding his way.

This signing speaks volumes about how badly the front office misjudged the pitching talent in the organization. Pivetta and Vince Velasquez have been fair to awful this season. Maybe signing Smyly will work out. Maybe GM Matt Klentak knows more than everybody else. But the numbers say otherwise.

Red-Hot Harper

Last night was one of the reasons why the Phillies gave Bryce Harper $330 million to call South Philly home for the next 12 1/2 years.

Harper hit a 9th-inning walk-off double to give the Phils a 9-8 win, a game in which they blewa five-run lead. Harper also homered, walked twice and finished with 5 RBIs. Maybe, just maybe, he's gotten comfortable enough to play like the MVP he's being paid to be.

In his last 15 games, Harper is slashing .316/.418/.579 with 4 homers and 13 RBIs. If only some other pieces of the Phillies offense could get hot at the same time. Harper has been an absolute beast with runners in scoring position–hitting .395 with 40 RBIs and an OPS of 1.163 in 95 plate appearances. But when there's nobody on base, he turns into Michael Martinez/Steve Jeltz/Andrew Knapp (take your pick) with a .163/.300/.294 slash line. Blech.

Some other observations:

• Can we please stop pretending that Vince Velasquez can be an effective starting pitcher? He lasted 4.2 innings last night and 4 of the 5 hits he gave up were home runs. He's now allowed 17 homers in just 61 innings. He's pitched through the 6th inning just once in his 10 starts this season. Enough. Stick him in the bullpen and let him throw gas for an inning. 
• Hector Neris is doing Hector Neris things again. In his last 6 innings, he's given up 10 hits and 4 walks and earned a 13.50 ERA. Not great. Unfortunately, he seems to be the best option for the 9th inning with seemingly every other experienced reliever on the injured list.
• Monday night's 16-2 beatdown was the third time this year the Phillies have lost by at least 14 runs. That hasn't happened since 1935, when they finished in 7th place with a 64-89 record.

Third freaking place

Dumpster fire. Shit show. Train wreck. Take your pick. Any of those will do to describe the Phillies over the last 5 weeks.

On June 1, the Phillies were 8 games over .500 and in first place in the National League East with a 2-game lead over the Braves. After last night’s debacle, they are 3 games over .500 and trail the first-place Braves by 6.5 games. And they're in third place. They are now closer to the fourth-place Mets than they are to first-place Atlanta.

Who’s to blame? General manager Matt Klentak for having too much faith in Zac Eflin, Nick Pivetta, and Vince Velasquez and not trading or signing an established starter? Gabe Kapler for being too nice? The pitching staff for being so awful and allowing 150 home runs in just 89 games?

The good news is that it’s only July 5 and there’s lots of time to turn things around. The bad news is that there’s nothing to indicate things are going to get better any time soon. Maybe it’s time to sell before the July 31 trade deadline.

Chasing the Braves

Welcome to July, where the Phillies find themselves 5.5 games behind the first-place Braves. Just one short month ago, the Phils were in first place with a 2-game lead over Atlanta. So what the hell happened?

A 7-game losing streak, including 3 losses to the last-place Marlins. Injuries all over the place. And the inability to hit. Or pitch. And that, friends, is how you drop 7 games in the standings in just 4 weeks.

But the Phils find themselves in Atlanta for a 3-game series starting tomorrow night. They simply cannot afford to lose any more ground against the Braves. They're 4-2 against Atlanta so far this year. If the Phils sweep, they're just 2.5 games out. Winning 2 out of 3 puts them 4.5 out. Getting swept finds our heroes 8.5 games out of first.

They need to sweep. And GM Matt Klentak needs to find some pitching help, like yesterday. They can't afford to keep running the comedy team of Velasquez and Pivetta out there every fourth and fifth day and hope for the best.  Sweep and winning the division is a distinct possibility. Get swept and prepare to hear the E-A-G-L-E-S chant nonstop when they return home from the All-Star break.