It's Only April 30, But...

Not to be alarmist on April 30 or anything, but the Phillies really need to find a way to beat the New York Mets. After getting no-hit last night, the Phils are now 1-3 against the Mets and have been outscored 18-11.

They're also five games behind Mets in the standings and still have to face Max Scherzer on Sunday night. And they still haven't faced the injured Jacob deGrom, so technically, things could be even worse.

Maybe the no-hitter was just a blip. The Phils were coming off a sweep of the Rockies where they outscored them 32-9. But two of the Phils' biggest bats, are really struggling. Rhys Hoskins is stuck in a 6 for 45 slump, while Kyle Schwarber is just 11 for 67 on the season and is hitting .164. Those numbers didn't matter against the lowly Rockies, but the Mets' pitching on is on a whole other level.

If they're going to beat the Mets, they're going to have to hit. Maybe that means Bryce Harper bunting against the shift to get on base. Or sitting Hoskins or Schwarber for a game or two. It's only April 30, and they're only five games out of first. But it's getting late early. 

Stott Sent Down

To nobody's surprise, rookie infielder Bryson Stott has been sent to the minors to get more playing time. To take Stott's place on the roster, the Phillies have recalled oft-injured outfielder Roman Quinn.

Stott needs the playing time. And hopefully Quinn can stay healthy enough to take playing time away from Odubel Herrera. And Stott is just an injury away from returning to Philadelphia, 

Bad Night All Around

I held off on blogging about last night's loss until this morning because I wanted some time to gather my thoughts about Odubel Herrera and Angel Hernandez. It would be so easy to say they both suck and should never be allowed on an MLB field again. But cooler heads have prevailed. Or have they?

Hernandez was absolutely brutal last night. According to umpireauditor.com, Hernandez was the lowest-rated umpire of the day, missing 19 calls and making the right call just 85 percent of the time. He rang up six hitters on pitches outside the strike zone and called a strike on Jean Segura that was inside by a season-high 6.47 inches. And the photo above shows Kyle Schwarber absolutely losing his shit after getting called out in the ninth inning. 

To be fair, Hernandez was horrible for both the Phils and Brewers. Four Phillies and two Brewers were called out on strikes that were out of the strike zone, according to StatCast. Maybe it's time for robot umpires. Professional tennis has been using Hawk-Eye Live since 2017 to determine if shots are inside or out. And it's been wildly successful. MLB already uses instant replay on close calls, so why not just go for the robe umps for consistency throughout the game? I know there will be people screaming about taking the human element out of the game, but Hernandez's performance last night was flat-out brutal. 

Now onto Herrera. He came in to pinch hit for Matt Vierling with two outs in the bottom of the seventh with the game still scoreless. Herrera was called on because reliever Brad Boxberger is a righty, and Herrera is a lefty. Alec Bohm and Johan Camargo were up before Herrera and saw a combined nine pitches. So of course Herrera, who has been on the bench all night, decided to take a couple of pitches to see what Boxberger was throwing. Nope. He hacked at the first pitch and grounded out pathetically to third.

Let's move to the ninth. Herrera is now in center and Jace Peterson leads off and lifts a popup to short center. Camargo runs out to try and make a play, and Herrera tentatively moves in toward the ball. That play is the CFer's every day of the week since his momentum is taking him toward the ball and he has a better view. But Herrera never made the call and the call dropped between them. Peterson would eventually come around and score the game's only run. 

I was thrilled when his contract was up and I thought he'd be gone from this team forever. But for whatever reason, the Phillies brought him back. Mickey Moniak had a great spring and would have been in center except for breaking a bone in his wrist in the last game of spring training. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Herrera had something to do with it. I'm kidding. Mostly. I want Herrera gone. Yesterday. 

 

Little Mistakes, Big Problems

When a team is going bad, the littlest mistakes almost always turn into big problems. 

Take the first inning today against the Rockies. Zach Eflin got the first out and then Randal Grichuk hit a ball between first and second. Rhys Hoskins dove for the ball when he probably should have let it go and headed to cover first. 

That forced Eflin to cover first, and Jean Segura's throw was wide and Grichuk was safe. Raise your hand if you knew this would end up biting the Phillies in the butt. Because it did. 

Kris Bryant was next and singled, with Grichuk moving to second. Eflin got CJ Cron swinging for the second out. Ryan McMahon crushed the first pitch he saw to deep right for a double and the both runs scored. Now the offensively challenged Phillies have to find a way to come back. 

Same As It Ever Was

This season was supposed to be different. This was going to be the year that the playoff drought ended. Spending all that money on guys like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos was going to transform this team. 

Doesn't look like it. The Phillies are 3-5, having lost four straight, including the last two to the Marlins. They're already 3 games behind the Mets in the NL East in last place. It all seems so familiar. 

Schwarber has been a big disappointment so far. Sure, he began his Phillies career with a homer on Opening Day. Since then, he has one hit in 28 at bats. One. He's hitting .094. MVP Bryce Harper is 4 for 35 with an OPS that's half of what it was last season. Matt Vierling is 1 for 16. Shane Victorino visited the broadcast booth the other night and I'm pretty sure he'd be a substantial upgrade over Vierling. He's only 41.

This team was supposed to be an offensive juggernaut. Instead, they've scored just 29 runs in eight games. They've already been shut out once, and been held to one run two other times. I know the season is just eight games old, but it can get late early. They need to start hitting or else this season is going to look like every other one over the last 10 years. 

Beat The Mets

A win for the Phillies is sweet. A win over the hated New York Mets is better. And a win where the Phils come from behind, after seemingly being dead in the water for seven innings, against the Mets, is just about the best thing there is. 

Last night had all the makings of our worst fears for the season. Cold bats and awful defense. Alec Bohm made THREE errors in three innings. And before the eighth inning last night, the top four guys in the lineup–Kyle Schwarber, JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos–were a combined 7 for 53 to start the season. 

The eighth inning started quietly enough, with the Phils down 4-0. Bohm walked, and Johan Camargo hit a pinch-hit single, sending Bohm to third. Camargo was hitting for Matt Vierling, who was 0 for 10 to start the season. Schwarber was next, and hit a grounder that looked like a double-play ball. But Schwarber busted down the line to beat the throw. 

Realmuto was next, and crushed a 3-2 changeup 410 feet into the left-field seats to make it 4-3. Harper struck out on three pitches, and Castellanos worked a seven-pitch walk off Seth Lugo. Rhys Hoskins, the Phillies best hitter so far this season (.385/.500/1.269) doubled to left, and a rampaging Castellanos beat the throw to tie the game. The much-maligned Didi Gregorius, with the fans chanting his name, ripped a double to right center for the go-ahead run.

Lefty Brad Hand came in for the 1-2-3 save in the ninth, striking out two. Ballgame. And watching the Mets blow a big lead, especially against the Phillies, never gets old. 

So now the Phils are 3-1 and lead the NL East with two more games against the Mets, tonight and tomorrow afternoon. The Phils have Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola pitching, while the Mets will counter with Tylor Megill and some dude named Scherzer. 

Happy Opening Day

Well, here we are–it's finally Opening Day. 

This Phillies team seems poised to break its lengthy playoff drought with one of the most potent lineups in baseball. Owner John Middleton finally really opened his wallet and spent $179 million on slugging outfielders Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. 

They signed two relievers with bona fide closing experience in Brad Hand and Corey Knebel. Former closer Seranthony Dominguez is back as well, finally healthy and throwing as hard as ever. The bullpen has been historically bad the last couple of years, so it has to be better, right? Right?

This team is going to hit, big time. Check out this lineup:

Schwarber

Realmuto

Harper

Castellanos

Hoskins

Gregorius

Segura

Stott

Vierling

I'll put those first seven guys against any pitcher in baseball and have a pretty good feeling about it. 

The starting pitching is solid, but the depth is thin. If any of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Zach Eflin, Ranger Suarez, or Kyle Gibson goes down, there's not much help down in the minors. So health is key. 

I'm really looking forward to seeing rookie infielder Bryson Stott. He's the best position prospect the organization has produced in years. And I feel absolutely awful for Mickey Moniak, the young outfielder who had struggled for years in the minors after being the top pick win baseball in 2016. He had a fantastic spring and made the team, only to suffer a hairline fracture in his wrist on Wednesday in the last spring training game. He'll be out for at least six weeks. Poor kid. 

The big question mark is the defense. It's not really a question mark, because everyone assumes it's going to be pretty terrible. If they can just be league average in the field, this team could do some really good things. 

So on to the predictions. I see 88 wins for this team, and a wild-card playoff berth. The Braves look too strong and the Mets will probably be the Mets we've all known to love and giggle at. One more prediction–the Phillies will hit 206 home runs this season. Ring the damn bell. 

Meet the Bomb Squad

One week.#RingTheBell pic.twitter.com/3aV5FnSOhh

— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) April 1, 2022

Runs, Runs, Runs

Everybody seems to thinks the Phils will score runs this year. A lot of runs. A whole lot of runs. Between the additions of Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos and the DH in the National League, the Phils will be lighting up scoreboards from coast to coast. 

How many runs are we talking? I decided to use baseball-reference.com's 162-game average tool to get an idea. It takes a player's career and computes what an average 162-game season looks like. We'll list the 162-game average for home runs, batting average, and OPS and see what happens.

Schwarber - 37 HR, .237/.836

Segura - 13 HR, .285/.740

Harper - 34 HR, .274/916

Hoskins - 37 HR, .241/.862

Castellanos - 25 HR, .278/.814

Realmuto - 21 HR, .275/.783

Gregorius - 21 HR, .259/.737

That's 188 home runs right there, not counting whatever comes from CF and at third base. The 2021 Phillies hit 198 home runs and scored 734 runs, which turns out to be league average for the year. Six teams scored more than 800 runs last year. It's not a stretch to think the Phils could top 800 runs, especially since they'll be missing at least three games against Mets ace Jacob DeGrom, who is shut down for at least a month. 

Add in lots of other injuries to pitchers because of the short spring training, and you're going to see offensive numbers like you haven't seen in years. Scoring 800 shouldn't be a problem for the Phils. But with that defense, preventing 800 is another story altogether.