This Is It

Six games left and 2.5 games behind the first-place Braves. The only way I see the Phillies winning the division is to run the table and win all six.

They can't afford to lose again, especially to the Braves. At least the pitching is set up. Zack Wheeler goes Tuesday, Aaron Nola goes Wednesday, and Kyle Gibson is set for Thursday. I'd seriously consider swapping Gibson with Ranger Suarez for Thursday because Suarez has been incredible since he became a starter.

I'm also concerned about Nola, who has been nothing special the last six weeks or so. He doesn't look anything like the guy who was in the conversation for a Cy Young Award as recently as 2018. 

And winning all six doesn't even guarantee the division. The Braves go 3-3 this week and end up trailing the Phils by a half game next Sunday. That would force the Braves to play a makeup game next Monday against the Rockies, who I'm sure won't be motivated at all to fly across the country for a game that means nothing to them. 

So if the Braves win that one, it sets up a one-game, winner-take-all 163rd game with the Phillies for the division next Tuesday. 

But first things first. They have to sweep the Braves, in Atlanta. Yikes. 

Looking Ahead

So there are eight games left in the season and the Phillies find themselves just 1.5 games out of first place. I don't want to look back at the 34 blown saves so far this year–but if I were to do that, I'd think of where the Phils would be if they had been able to convert just 10 of those.

Anyway, let's look ahead to the playoffs. Yes, playoffs. The Phils would face Milwaukee in the first round and my rotation order looks like this–Zach Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Aaron Nola, and Kyle Gibson. Even before yesterday's gem, Suarez has moved ahead of Nola on my depth chart. He's been absolutely spectacular since moving to the rotation. Let's compare Suarez and Nola in their last 11 starts:

Suarez - 58.2 IP, 46 H, 18 BB, 56K, 1.69 ERA, .548 OPS against and an insane WAR of 5.4

Nola - 59 IP,  47 H, 13 BB, 79K, 5.16 ERA, .624 OPS against and a 2.6 WAR

It's actually a lot closer than I thought it would be, except for the ERA. But the eye test gives Suarez the No. 2 spot. Nola has struggled, especially with two strikes on hitters and being unable to put them away. 

No matter what happens, let's take a moment and savor the fact that the New York Mets, the consensus preseason favorites to win the division, were eliminated from playoff contention yesterday. And there was much rejoicing. Yay.

Simply Ridiculous

The Phillies managed to blow their 31st and 32nd saves of the season last night and still managed not only to win, but to gain ground on the first-pace Braves.

Ian Kennedy looks a lot more like Brandon Workman, last year's big closer acquisition, than a competent relief pitcher. Kennedy had one of the blown saves (his fourth in 16 appearances) and gave up a homer that tied the game. It was the seventh homer he's allowed in 15.2 innings. But thanks to a passed ball by the Cubs in the bottom of the ninth, Kennedy got credit for the win (the most useless stat for gauging pitchers). 

Workman, as you may recall (or perhaps you'd rather forget), was trash for the Phils last year. He gave up four homers in just 13 innings and had an ERA of 6.92 for that historically bad bullpen. Kennedy's ERA sits at 6.32 for the Phils. Workman only had three blown saves and didn't pitch again after Sept. 22. 

So why is Kennedy still the closer? The Phils have zero margin for error with two and half weeks left in the season. It's time to put Hector Neris, Archie Bradley, or even Sam Coonrod in to close games. Kennedy is a liability and can't be trusted to hold a lead. 

Playoffs?

The Phillies are 4-8 in September and keep losing to teams with records below .500. And speaking of .500, that's back where the Phillies are halfway through another horrific September.

But the weird thing is, the Braves keep losing on the same nights that the Phils lose. So they're still only 4.5 games out of first. But there are only 18 games left, and the chances of making the postseason are fading fast. Baseball-reference.com says the Phils have a 19 percent chance of playing in October. 

Last night was a perfect example of everything that's gone wrong this year. Kyle Gibson retired the first 14 hitters he faced. Twelve pitches and two homers later, it was 3-1. The Phils also hit into four double plays.

It's the same crap year after year after year. It's exhausting and frustrating. 

The Fat Lady is Warming Up

I'm a baseball guy first, so yesterday I watched the Phillies on TV and streamed the Eagles-Falcons game on my laptop. I'm going to switch things up for next weekend.

The Phils dropped three of four to the god-awful Rockies, and are 4.5 games behind the Braves with just 19 left to play. Four of those games will be bullpen games. Raise your hand if you think the Phillies have a shot. [Scans room, sees no hands]. Just as a I thought.

The old saying goes "the opera isn't over until the fat lady sings." She's definitely warming up. From what we've seen so far this month, and all season, I don't see any reason to think the Phils can overcome their multiple shortcomings and make the playoffs. 

I want them to make the playoffs. There's nothing like October baseball. But I'm also a realist. As long as they finish above .500 and ahead of the Mets, well, I guess that's better than nothing. It really isn't, but you gotta look for something, right? 

Bring Back Vinny!

I can't believe I'm writing this, but it's time to give Vince Velasquez another chance. If you've read this blog over time, you know my feelings about VV. Well, after last night's bullpen shitshow, it's time to bring Vinny back from Triple A for a few more starts. 

I mean, how much worse could he be than what the Phillies rolled out there last night? Eleven runs, 11 hits, and six walks. Even the Rockies broadcasters didn't understand what was going on. 

While rehabbing in the minors, Velasquez has been really good–13.2 innings pitched, six hits, four walks, and 24 strikeouts. So bring him back. How much worse can things possibly get? They've lost six of eight and are now 4.5 games behind first-place Atlanta. They're not hitting and they're sure as hell not pitching. It's another September meltdown. 

Ugliness Abounds

Thirty (30!) blown saves. A closer who has allowed six homers in 13.2 innings. And 3.5 games behind the first-place Braves with 22 games to go in the season. It looks bleak.

I don't see a 2007-style comeback, where the Phils overtook the Mets from seven games back with 17 to play. There's no Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, or Cole Hamels to come to the rescue. All the 2021 Phils have is Bryce Harper (who deserves MVP consideration), a banged-up JT Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen (who can't hit righties), Zach Wheeler, and Aaron Nola, a shell of his former self.

Harper can't do it all, as much as he tries. As long as boneheads like Odubel Herrera overside bases and the defense plays with the effectiveness of a slice of Swiss cheese, this team will fight to finish at .500.

They were one strike away from beating the Rockies last night when closer Ian Kennedy hung a curveball that got hit to Gloucester City. Those same Rockies had all of 20 road wins going into last night. 

And tonight will be a bullpen game, one of five more the team will throw out there in the next three weeks because of injuries and ineptitude. What in the name of Brad Lidge is going on here?

Only 18,000 people bothered to show up at last night's game. I was one of them. And the place was deadly silent all night. Until Kennedy surrendered back-to-back homers, that is, and left to a cacophony of well-deserved boos. 

The end is near. And man oh man does this team need help.