Set Your DVRs

The Spring Training TV schedule has finally been announced and we’ll get out first look at the 2031 Phillies on Monday, March 1 against the Orioles. 

NBCSports Philadelphia and NBCSports Philadelphia+ will show 12 of the team’s 14 home games. 

I’ll have the TV on as I work from home. The Phils on TV is a sure sign of warmer days ahead. 

Fans in the Stands at CBP?

Philadelphia Health Commissioner Thomas Farley said today it's likely there will be fans in the stands for the Phillies Home Opener on April 1, but the number will depend on what the state allows. It will also depend on the number of COVID cases dropping. 

This is great news all around. The Phils will make some money, baseball games will seem like baseball games again, and I'll have a chance to resume my streak.

For those of you who don't know me, Opening Day is my personal religious holiday. I've been to every Phillies Home Opener since 1980. I even went last year (as pictured above with my son), even though we couldn't get into the ballpark. My son, who just turned 25, has been at every Home Opener with me since 2001. It's by far my favorite day of the year. 

There's no way to know how many tickets will be available and who can get them. But if someone with an office at Citizens Bank Park is reading this, I'd be eternally grateful if you could hook me with a pair of tickets to keep the streak alive. 

Rhys Gets the Green Light

Good news for the Phillies today as first baseman Rhys Hoskins was medically cleared for all spring training activity following Tommy John surgery.

Hoskins was injured last season in a freak play at first when he tried to tag Corey Dickerson of the Marlins. Hoskins missed the last 17 games of the season and there were a lot of questions about if he'd be ready for the regular season, which starts April 1.

"Honestly, I feel normal," Hoskins told The Philadelphia Inquirer. "It's a good place to be."

A healthy Hoskins will be a big part of the offense that was fifth in the National League in runs last season. A full season of third baseman Alec Bohn should also boost the output.

A number of foreign players are having visa issues, including newly re-signed shortstop Didi Gregorius. When the players do make it to Clearwater, they'll have to quarantine because of COVID protocols.

The first full-squad workouts were held today, and the exhibition season begins on Sunday against the Tigers. I've been looking everywhere for a spring training TV schedule to see which games, if any, will be televised. Seeing Phillies baseball and palm trees would be a welcome sight after three weeks of this god-awful February weather. 

Not a Great Start

Two freaking days. That's how long it took the dark clouds to form over the Phillies Spring Training Complex and screw up what looked to be an optimistic season.

JT Realmuto, he of the recently inked five-year, $115.5 million contract, fractured his right thumb today and will be out of action for at least two weeks. The team hopes he'll be ready by Opening Day on April 1. 

This news just broke (no pun intended) and there aren't any details about how it happened. But if Odubel Herrera had anything to do with it, he should be shipped out immediately. Why can't we have nice things?  

Camp Clearwooder, Day 1

Phillies pitchers and catchers held their first official workouts on Wednesday, as indicated above in this photo of Archie Bradley (right) and Zack Wheeler tweeted out by the team.

The big news is nobody got hurt. Which is nice. There are some other tidbits worth mentioning.

• The Phillies signed Bamboo Brad Miller to a one-year contract for a reported $3.5 million. Miller can play every infield position and the corner outfield spots, so he's a lock to make the team as a utility guy and bat off the bench. But that salary, tweeted out by John Heyman, seems awfully high for a bench guy. They moved Seranthony Dominguez to the 60-day injured list to make roster space for Miller. 
• They also signed left-handed reliever Tony Watson. He's durable, averaging 70 appearances per year from 2013 to 2019. And he's also good, with a 1.07 WHIP and 2.65 ERA since 2013. He struck out 15 and walked three in 18 innings with the Giants in 2020. Sounds like he's a good bet to be a part of the revamped and hopefully not as as awful bullpen.
• And Aaron Nola said he believes in second chances and would welcome Odubel Herrera back to the team. "Baseball wise, he could definitely help us win," Nola said, and added later that he'd prefer to pitch every fifth day. This is noteworthy because the Phils are considering using a six-man starting rotation this season.

Baseball is back. And there was much rejoicing. 

Happy Pitchers and Catchers Report Day!

Baseball is finally back. And not a moment too soon. 

Between the pandemic and the awful weather, this winter seems to have lasted as long as 2020 did. And that was a loooooooooong time. 

Anyway, the only real competition will be for a handful of bullpen sports and the starting center fielder. The Phillies announced that Odubel Herrera has been invited to the big league camp. Oh joy. So add him, Scott Kingery, Roman Quinn, Adam Haseley, and the recently signed Travis Jankowski and his career .628 OPS to the mix in CF. It'll be interesting to see how they split up playing time with a limited Grapefruit League schedule and no split-squad games. Another interesting addition to the mini camp roster is shortstop Bryson Stott, the team's first-round pick in 2019. 

And there will be fans in the stands in Florida. The Phils will sell 2,200 tickets for each game, one-quarter of the capacity of Spectrum Field in Clearwater. Exhibition games begin Feb. 28 and the regular season starts April 1, provided the pandemic doesn't foul things up. I mean, with all those maskless yahoos running around Florida, what could possibly go wrong?

The statistics site Fangraphs.com has come out with its preseason predictions, which shows the Phils finishing fourth in the NL East with a 13.4 percent chance to make the playoffs. I think the Phils will be better than last year, and the bullpen has to be better. I'll wait a few weeks to see how Spring Training unfolds before I make any predictions. 

But our long national nightmare is over. Spring Training has arrived. 

Lots of Familiar Faces

MLB announced Spring Training schedules today, and the Phillies are going to be playing the same five teams. So get used to seeing the Tigers, Jays, Yankees, Pirates, and Orioles. They're only playing the Orioles once, so it's more like four teams. 

MLB wants to keep teams from traveling too far from their homes, and the Phillies won't go more than 90 miles for any game. The first game is Sunday, Feb. 28 and the last is Monday, March 29. Pitchers and catchers report in five days and the Home Opener is April 1. It actually feels like we're going to have baseball soon. 

Meanwhile, in Clearwooder

While many of us in the Philadelphia area were shoveling yet more snow and waiting in line for COVID vaccines (got mine today), the Phillies equipment truck arrived in Clearwater, just one more sign that baseball is almost back.

The first official workout for pitchers and catchers is next week, and the biggest storylines will be the content of the bullpen and the identity of the everyday centerfielder. Recent reports have suggested that exiled former All Star Odubel Herrera should get a chance to win his job back. I don't think so.

Before being arrested in a domestic violence case where the charges were eventually dropped, Herrera was flat-out awful. On June 25, 2018, Herrera was hitting .302 with an .857 OPS. In the remaining 74 games of the season, he hit .202 with a .591 OPS. He finished the season at .255/.730.

Things didn't get much better in 2019. In 39 games, he hit .222 with a .629 OPS, before being arrested and suspended. And he didn't play at all in 2020. To think the Phillies are even considering giving him a shot is absurd, except when you realize he's being paid $10.35 million in 2021. So there's the reason he'll get a chance, no matter how badly he played over the last 113 games and how rusty he is. 

Speaking of outfielders, the Phillies have signed veteran Matt Joyce to a minor league deal. Joyce, who turns 37 in August, was drafted by Phillies VPBO Dave Dombrowski in 2005 when he was the Tigers GM. He's a career .244 hitter with a .772 OPS in more than 1,300 MLB games. The left-handed Joyce has 147 career home runs, so he could be a LH option off the bench. I'd rather have Matt Stairs. 

Another Bullpen Option

The Phillies have signed another reliever to a minor-league deal, and this one looks like he'll probably make the big club. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that Brandon Kintzler will make $3 million if he makes the team.

Kintzler has experience as a closer and was an All Star with the Twins in 2017. He's an 11-year veteran who has pitched for the Brewers, Twins, Nationals, Cubs, and Marlins. In 454 games, he has a 3.31 ERA, 61 saves, and a 1.25 WHIP. He doesn't throw very hard, which goes against the team's philosophy of bullpen additions this winter. But he's closed games and gets outs with a sinker, which will be a welcome sight at Citizens Bank Park. The fewer fly balls allowed by the bullpen, the better. 

Rosenthal said Bryce Harper, who was a teammate of Kintzler's in Washington, pushed for the signing. What Bryce wants, Bryce gets. 

On paper, the Phillies 2021 bullpen looks a lot better than last year. But then again, so does a 12-car pileup on the Schuylkill Expressway. But even if the bullpen is league average, and the offense performs like it did last year, the Phils might be able to make the playoffs. 

The Phils also made a minor trade on Wednesday. They sent pitcher Johan Quezada to the Cardinals for cash. The moves makes room on the 40-man roster for Didi Gregorius, who officially signed his two-year contract today. (Brandon Kintzler photo by the Chicago Tribune)

PECOTA says...

Warning: Extremely geeky baseball content to follow.

Baseball Prospectus has released its PECOTA standings for the upcoming season. PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, a system for predicting MLB player performance. It's also a nod to longtime MLB infielder Bill Pecota, who played for the Royals, Mets, and Braves. BP runs thousands of simulations based on math I can't even begin to comprehend to get its results. 

Anyway, back to the predictions. PECOTA has the Phillies third in the NL East with an 83-79 record with a 7.4 percent chance to win the division. Here's the NL rundown:

If that's too small to see, PECOTA has the Mets running away with the NL East with 95.5 wins. The Nationals are second at 85-77. I'm not sure why, but the Braves are fourth and the Marlins, are picked fifth.

PECOTA uses a player's past performance to project the most likely outcome for the season to come. It has the Phillies with a plus-50 run differential, which is nice. I'll dive into other projections once I get my subscription issues straightened out. 

It Has to Be Better, Right?

Your Philadelphia Phillies held leads in 49 of the 60 games they played in 2020. They managed to lose 21 of those games, Jayson Stark reported yesterday in The Athletic. Thanks, worst bullpen in modern history.

Jayson added this to add lemon juice to the paper cuts:

Was it some kind of planetary alignment that caused this historic suckage? Or was it just bad, terrible, awful luck, with a healthy helping of bad pitching? New Phillies VPBO Dave Dombrowski has made it his mission to retool the bullpen for 2021.

Members of the 2020 bullpen who are no longer with us include Brandon Workman, Adam Morgan, Victor Arano, Heath Hembree, Tommy Hunter, Reggie McClain, Blake Parker, Cole Irvin, and probably some other I forgot because their performances were so, well, forgettable.

The biggest addition to the bullpen for 2021 is Archie Bradley. They've also added Jose Alvarado and Sam Coonrod. Holdovers from last year include Hector Neris, Connor Brogdon, David Hale, JoJo Romero, and Ranger Suarez. You have to think that addition by subtraction will make the 2021 team better. Even lowering the bullpen ERA by a run would make a big difference. 

One guy I'd like to see back, if he's healthy, is David Robertson. He's the guy who was healthy throughout his whole career until he joined the Phillies in 2019. He pitched a total of 6.2 innings in 2019 and didn't pitch at all in 2020. If he's healthy, I'd love to see the Phils sign him for a low base salary (maybe $2 million) and load it up with incentives. He made $23 million for his 6.2 innings with the Phils. He almost owes it to the Phillies to come back and earn what he was paid.

The equipment truck leaves snowy Philadelphia on Monday for Spring Training in Clearwater. The first official workout for pitchers and catchers is Wednesday, Feb. 17, pandemic permitting. 

Phils Sign Another Starter

The Phillies have signed starting pitcher Chase Anderson to a one-year, $4 million contract. Anderson gave up a staggering five home runs IN ONE INNING to the Yankees last season. 

Anderson doesn't seem like the best fit for cozy Citizens Bank Park. He's a fly-ball pitcher who doesn't strike out a lot of guys (7.6 per 9 innings) and walks nearly three hitters per 9 innings, good for a career WHIP of 1.275. It's not great, but it's not awful, either. 

But he was absolutely awful last year. Like member-of-the-Phillies-bullpen awful. He pitched 33.2 innings and allowed 45 hits and 11 homers with a 7.22 ERA. Opposing hitters hit .315 against him with a .986 OPS. Small sample size, but definitely worthy of the puke emoji.

I checked his baseball-reference.com page for some positives and came up with a couple:

• In 890.2 innings pitched in his career, he has balked exactly once.
• He's only thrown 14 wild pitches in his career.

His best year was with the Brewers in 2017, when he recorded a 2.74 ERA and a WHIP of 1.09 in 141.1 innings. The next season, he allowed a league-high 30 home runs, compared to his 1.4 HR per 9 innings over his career. 

Since the Phils spent $4 million on the 33-year-old righty, I expect him to be a member of the starting rotation. I hope he learns to keep the ball down in the strike zone and gets a ton of ground balls.