Ugly End to an Ugly Season

One stinking game. All the Phillies had to do was win one more game in the last week of the season and they would have made the playoffs. They needed the Giants and Brewers to lose Sunday (they both did) and had they won on Sunday against the Rays, they would have made the playoffs. So of course they managed six hits and got shut out. 

Would they have deserved it? Absolutely not. This team was solid offensively, but the pitching beyond Aaron Nola, Zach Wheeler, and Zac Eflin was a complete disaster. The bullpen was the worst in baseball in 90 years. This team blew at least eight three-run leads over the course of the 60-game season. 

Sure, there were injures. Bryce Harper was playing with a bad back, JT Realmuto's hip was messed up, and Rhys Hoskins practically had his elbow torn off. So what? The Braves lost most of their starting pitchers, and the Marlins lost most of their team to COVID. Both of those teams made the playoffs. 

Here are a few guys I'm hoping are no longer employed by the Philadelphia Phillies in the coming weeks:

General Manager Matt Klentak - architect of the worst bullpen in modern history and author of numerous dubious trades (remember Carlos Santana?). 

Andy McPhail - Klentak's immediate boss.

Jake Arrieta - earned $75 million in three years as a Phillie, and won 22 games.

Vince Velasquez - loads of potential, and tons of chances to show he belonged in the majors since he joined the Phils in 2016. He won 27 games. 

Brandon Workman - one of Klentak's big bullpen acquisitions. Had an ERA 6.96 and gave up 23 hits, 11 walks, and 11 runs in 13 innings. Buh-bye.

Jean Segura - I'd love to see the new GM trade him for a bag of left-handed curveballs.

Tommy Hunter - Enough already.

Andrew McCutchen - I love the guy, but he's not an everyday player any more. Injuries have made a once-great player a shadow of his younger self.

But there were a few positives:

Wheeler looks like a bona fide ace.

Alec Bohm should be rookie of the year and could very well win several batting titles during his career.

Andrew Knapp is a solid major league catcher. 

And in a small sample size late in the season, rookie Connor Brogdon came up huge in some really big situations. He deserves a  roster spot based on this weekend's performance alone.

The first thing the new GM needs to do is sign Realmuto. He can't be allowed to walk and go to a division rival and haunt the Phillies for years, along with Sixto Sanchez, who was traded to the Marlins to get JT. Sanchez was dominant for the Marlins and looks like the real deal. 

I'd look long and hard into the front offices of the Padres, Braves, Indians, Rays, Athletics, and Marlins and find someone to hire as GM with a clue on how to cultivate young talent. 

Three Games to Go

So here we are, in late September, and somehow, the Phillies have a shot at making the playoffs with three games left in the season. It seems completely insane given that they're working with one of the worst bullpens in baseball history.

They're going to need help from other teams, but it's absolutely imperative that they find a way to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays in Florida this weekend. The Rays have the best record in the American League and need at least two wins or two losses by the Twins to clinch the top seed in the AL.

There are still a couple of ways the Phils can get in. 

- The Phils are a game behind Miami in the NL East. Overtake the Marlins and they're in. The Marlins are in the Bronx against the Yankees this weekend. New York has a chance to overtake the White Sox for the fourth seed by sweeping the Marlins. The White Sox host the Cubs, who could overtake Atlanta for the second seed in the NL by sweeping the Sox. The Braves are in Boston to play the lowly Red Sox.

- They need help from the Reds and Gabe Kapler's Giants, who currently hold the wild-card spots just above the Phillies. The Reds have three games in Minnesota against the Twins, who are fighting the Rays for the best record in the AL. The Giants host the Padres for three in San Francisco, and San Diego has already locked up the fourth seed in the NL.

Got all that? 

The Phils open the series in Tampa tonight with Vince Velasquez, who needs to pitch the best game of his life. Zack Wheeler goes Saturday and Aaron Nola starts on Sunday. Even if they manage to sweep the Rays, there's no guarantee they'll get in. There's lots of moving parts. Fangraphs.com says the Phils have a 14.9 percent chance to finish second in the division, and a 36.3 percent shot to grab a wild card.

But like all big games, it's going to come down to the bullpen, which doesn't exactly give anyone a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Wheeler and Nola have the ability to take the game out of the bullpen's hands by pitching complete games. The best you can realistically hope for from Velasquez is about six innings. In his six starts this season, he's pitched into the sixth just twice. 

Have the antacid ready, folks. It's going to be a stressful weekend. 

It's Over

Stick a fork in the Phillies. They're done. 

On Saturday, they had an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs and had a firm grip on the seventh seed in the NL. They then went on to lose four straight, including three in a row to the last place Washington Nationals, the last of which came on a walk-off homer in extra innings. 

They played sloppy and they played ugly. They couldn't get the hits when they needed them and the pitching sucked. So here we are. They're two games under .500 with four games to play and a game out of the eighth and final playoff spot. They have one game left with the Nationals and then three in Tampa against the Rays, owners of the best record in the American League.

Do you honestly think the Phils can resurrect themselves over the next four games and slither into the playoffs? Not happening. This is an injured, flawed team that will most likely be getting a new general manager in the next few weeks.

But hey, at least we had two months and change of baseball during a pandemic. So why don't I feel grateful for that? 

My Favorite Moment of the Season

The best moment of the season came in the second game of last night's doubleheader, which the Phillies somehow managed to sweep. 

Catcher Rafael Marchan was called up from the Phillies alternate site after JT Realmuto injured his hip. As expected, Andrew Knapp has gotten most of the playing time, but Marchan has seen action in doubleheaders.

That's when it happened. In the bottom of the fourth, Marchan, all of 5 foot 9 and 21 years old, crushed his first professional home run deep into the seats in right field. That's right—his first home run as a pro came in the majors. 

The Phils loved this kid in spring training. Manager Joe Girardi was raving about his defense. Even though it's a teeny sample size (six at-bats), the kid is hitting .500 with an OPS of 1.500. 

The Phillies also announced yesterday that the team has lost more than $100 million this season from not having fans in attendance, and would begin buyouts and layoffs. Realmuto will be the marquee free agent available after the season. The evil Mets, and their obscenely wealthy new owner, would love to make a statement and sign JT. 

Will the Phils point to Marchan's early success and cry poor and let Realmuto go? They better effing not. Jake Arrieta's contract is finally off the books, freeing up plenty of cash to sign JT. Marchan is a great story so far, but is he really ready for prime time? 

It Happened Again

Just a typical Thursday for the #Phillies bullpen. pic.twitter.com/qHQBDa9PtI

— Jeff (@JeffLyons) September 11, 2020

 The great thing about social media is that old posts can often be reused. 

Yet Another New Way to Lose

You know your bullpen is terrible when it has more blown saves (11) than actual saves (9). Add in a stratospheric 7.05 ERA and you have a recipe for losing ballgames.

Like last night for instance. Adam Morgan pissed away a one-run lead against the Mets in the eighth when Adam Haseley couldn't catch a fly ball at the right field wall. Closer du jour Hector Neris did a very Hector Neris thing in the ninth. He gave up an 0-2 single to Robinson Cano, who was replaced with pinch runner Amed Rosario. He struck out Todd Frazier for the first out. But while facing Jeff McNeil, Neris lost his grip and dropped the ball on the mound and WAS CHARGED WITH A BALK. If it wasn't so infuriating it would be comical.

So McNeil gets an intentional walk to set up a force play, which doesn't matter because Andres Gimemez singled, scoring Rosario.  The Mets retired the Phillies in the ninth for the win. Sigh.

Do you want this team to make the playoffs, knowing full well that no lead is actually safe? That the bullpen has a better chance of blowing the game than, you know, actually saving it? I'd rather see them miss the playoffs and blame the bullpen than make the playoffs, get a glimmer of false hope, and then see the bullpen do a bullpen full of Hector Neris things when there's a chance for glory. (Photo of Hector Neris reacting to doing a Hector Neris thing from The Philadelphia Inquirer)

The Stuff of Nightmares

Watching Sixto Sanchez pitch against the Phillies is going to keep fans awake at night for a long, long time,

Sanchez was the centerpiece of the trade that brought JT Realmuto to Philadelphia last year. He was the best pitching prospect the team had seen since Cole Hamels. And today, the Phils faced him for the first time. It did not go well.

Sanchez was never in trouble and threw effortless 100-mph fastballs. The Marlins beat the Phils 2-1 in the first game of a douhbleheader, where the Phils managed just three hits. Sanchez only struck out four, but he didn't need to be overpowering. Sanchez got 10 groundball outs and the Phils hit into two double plays. 

And Realmuto, the prize the Phillies received for Sanchez and two others, didn't play because of an injured hip. He wasn't expected to play in the second game or on Monday, either. Realmuto will be the most sought-after free agent this off-season, and the Phils absolutely have to sign him. Imagine losing Realmuto to someone like the Mets and having to face Sanchez four times a year. It's the stuff of nightmares.

And speaking of nightmares, Kyle Garlick led off the sixth and was hit by a pitch. Ronald Torreyes was up next, which would have been a perfect spot for Didi Gregorius to pinch hit. Nope. Torreyes swung at the first pitch and grounded into a double play. Didi would pinch hit in the seventh and walk. He should have hit in the sixth. 

Not as Easy as 1-2-3

An easy 1-2-3 inning is an anomaly for Phillies relievers. It's worse than that—it's downright rare. I looked at the stats of the relievers on the active roster to see how any of them had faced three hitters in an inning and retired all three. And guess what—the numbers stink.

The relievers I included in the data dump include Hector Neris, Brandon Workman, Tommy Hunter (pictured above), Heath Hembree, Adam Morgan, David Hale, David Phelps, JoJo Romero, and Blake Parker. Between them, they've thrown 78 innings. And they've retired the side in order just 15 times (19.2 percent). Hunter has the most clean innings (5 out of 17), followed by Neris (3 of 14) and Romero (3 of 6).

Oakland's Liam Hendricks, the AL saves leader, has pitched 20.1 innings this season and has 11 1-2-3 innings (54 percent). And just for shits and giggles, I looked at Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, the Phillies top two starters, to see how they fared.

Going into tonight's game, Nola has pitched 49.1 innings and 23 of them have been perfect, which works out to 46.6 percent. Wheeler has 16 1-2-3s in 51 innings (34.4 percent). 

This isn't rocket science. You can just look at the Phillies bullpen and see they haven't been very good. But when you compare them to the starters, it looks a lot worse. 

Bullpen Blows It Again

Brandon Workman made his first appearance as a Phillie on Aug. 22. Since then, he has pitched exactly ONE clean inning, meaning no opposing hitter has reached base. In 10 games with the Phils, he's allowed 16 hits and eight walks in just 10.1 innings and other teams are hitting .348 against him. So why does he keep getting important innings to pitch? 

He did it again Thursday night, with a big assist from Tommy Hunter. The bullpen turned a 6-3 lead into a 7-6 loss. Hunter gave up a walk and two singles in the eighth and was relieved by Workman with two out and the bases loaded. Sterling Marte was the first Marlin to face Workman and he cleared the bases with a double on Workman's second pitch to tie the game. Workman then walked Jesus Aguilar on four pitches before Matt Joyce grounded into a force play.

And then there was the ninth inning. Brian Anderson singled on the first pitch and was replaced with a pinch runner Monte Harrison. Garrett Cooper grounded out and Harrison advance to second. Harrison then stole third and Workman intentionally walked Miguel Rojas, who stole second. Jazz Chilsolm struck out swinging for the second out, and then Jorge Alfaro won the game with a single to center. Alfaro entered the game hitting .204, but he still had two hits on Thursday. 

Workman has been so bad he makes me miss Nick Pivetta. Manager Joe Girardi can't keep sending Workman out in save situations any more. He can't be trusted to hold a lead. For whatever reason, he's not throwing his fastball. He threw 31 pitches, and only four were fastballs that topped 90 mph. I can't believe I'm saying this, but maybe it's time for Hector Neris to close again. 

And speaking of bad, Jake Arrieta had another brilliant start, which forced the Phils to use four relievers in the first game of a seven-game series over five days. Arrieta needs to go deep into the game, to minimize the damage the bullpen could do. Nope. Didn't happen.

Arrieta slogged through 5.2 innings and threw a mind-numbing 106 pitches. He gave up three runs on five hits and four walks. He followed a great performance against the Mets with this stinker. He's in the last days of this three-year, $75 million contract with the Phillies and I can't wait for that contract to expire. What a colossal waste of money. 

So here's the thing—the Phils are 21-19 and three games out of first. And for whatever reason, they can't seem to beat the Marlins. They're 1-3 against the Marlins and 16-7 agains the rest of the NL East. The play the Marlins six more times in the next four days. To have any shot at the playoffs, the starters will have to pitch deep into games to minimize the damage the bullpen can do. 

But that's going to be difficult to do, since Zach Wheeler won't be able to pitch on Saturday because he somehow injured his right middle finger WHILE PUTTING ON HIS PANTS. How? What? Because it's 2020. (Photo by The Philadelphia Inquirer)

Playoff Push

In case you haven't been paying attention, the Phillies are playing some of their best baseball in years. This team hasn't looked this good since Chase, Jimmy, Ryan, and Cole were in their primes. 

How good have they been? They're 9-1 in the last 10 games and average six runs a game. The team's OPS in the last 10 games is a solid .846. But can we talk about the pitching? It's been fantastic.

They shut the Nationals out twice in a four-game sweep this week. The starters have an ERA of 3.32, while the new-look bullpen's ERA is 3.50. And there's even more good news—Hector Neris struck out the side in pitching a perfect ninth inning last night and rookie lefthander JoJo Romero has struck out six and walked just one in 3.2 innings of work so far. He's off to a great start. 

The Phils shave won all six games against the World Series champion Nationals this season, and are 3-0 against the Mets, who host the Phillies in Queens this weekend for four games. A doubleheader with the Red Sox follows, and then perhaps the most important series of the season awaits—seven games in five days against the Marlins. 

Two weeks ago, the Phils had a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs. As of this morning, the chances are up to 85 percent. I love meaningful September baseball. (Photo by Yahoo Sports)

Welcome to September

The Phillies are one of the hottest teams in baseball right now, winners of six of their last seven and they have one of baseball's hottest hitters. And when this hitter was struggling, so were the Phillies. 

Rhys Hoskins had another homer last night and three more RBIS, and his batting average is up to .260. That's pretty remarkable considering that on Aug. 8, Hoskins was hitting .120 with a .533 OPS. His OPS now stands at .946. Andrew McCutchen is even hotter, hitting .375 in the last seven games. 

The Phils are doing this without much help from either Bryce Harper or JT Realmuto. Harper has just three hits in 25 at bats during this streak, while Realmuto is 5 for 29. Between the two of them, they have one homer and five RBIs in the last week. So what gives? 

The pitching has been much better, especially the bullpen. Sure, the relievers gave up four runs last night, but since Matt Klentak got bona fide major leaguers to pitch relief, things have turned around. The Phils are 15-15, tied for second place with the Marlins in the NL East and three games behind the Braves.

The last two Septembers, the Phils have crumbled and fallen out of contention. I don't see that happening this year. The offense is a lot more potent and the pitching is much, much better. October baseball? It could be a thing in Philadelphia.