The Next 10 Games

The Phillies are finishing up a murderous nearly month-long stretch of the schedule where they've faced opponents with winning records. Beginning tonight, they play 3 in Washington against the Nationals, and then return home for 3 against the Yankees and 4 more against the Nationals.

After starting the month slowly, the Phils have played well, winning their last 3 series and 7 out of the last 10 games.

Phillies starters for the first series against the Nationals are Zach Eflin, Aaron Nola, and Nick Pivetta, while the Nationals go with Tanner Roark, Erick Fedde, and Jefry Rodriguez. The Phils have hit Roark well over time, with Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez doing most of the damage. Roark has a 5.20 ERA in his last 5 starts against the Phillies, while Eflin has never faced the Nationals as a starter. Eflin has only appeared against 2 Nationals batters, and has pitched well in his last 3 starts, recording 2 wins against the Brewers and 1 against the Cubs.

I expect the Phils to take the first 2 games of the series, with the Nationals taking Sunday night's game against Pivetta. The Nats have a 1.265 OPS against him and have homered 6 times in 54 at-bats. But Saturday could be an issue because Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy both have OPS above 1.200 against Nola.

Then the Yankees come to town. The Phils have the best home record in the National League and will throw Vince Velasquez, Jake Arrieta, and Elfin against the Yankees. The Yankees have baseball's best record and bring their truly scary lineup to Philadelphia for the first time since the 2009 World Series. There's not much history with Phils pitchers against Yankees hitters, except for Giancarlo Stanton. I'm trying to be realistic here, but I think the Phils can manage to win 1 of the 3 games.

Then it's the Nationals again. The Phils will probably see Max Scherzer in this meeting, missing him this weekend. The Phils will go with Nola, Pivetta, Velasquez, and Arietta. The Phils should be able to win 2 of the 4. 

A friend asked me if this was a make-or-break string of games for the Phils. A 5-5 showing against 2 World Series contenders would be OK with me. I don't think more than 6 wins in this stretch is realistic, but losing 7 or more of these games could pretty much doom this team's faint playoff hopes.