So Many StriKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKouts

Your 2018 Philadelphia Phillies are tied for first place. They've been doing it with an offense that's been sketchy, at best. They're hitting .234 as a team (18th in MLB) with an OPS of .712 (20th). They are second in MLB in walks with 352 and fourth in strikeouts with 858. Seventeen other teams have scored more runs than the Phils.

The pitching, led by All Star Aaron Nola, has led to the resurgence. The Phils are 10th in MLB in ERA, 13th in Batting Average Against, and 10th in OPS allowed. Phillies pitchers have struck out the seventh most hitters in baseball this season. So a combination of great pitching and timely hitting have put the Phils where they are.

But strikeouts are up in baseball and have been increasing every year. Last season, hitters struck out 21.6 percent of the time. This year, it's closer to 23 percent. Hitters struck out more times than they got hits in both April and May this season.

Another reason players aren't getting on base is the increased use of defensive shifts. Teams often put all 4 infielders between first and second base to defend against pull hitters. So instead of trying to hit the ball on the ground, players are trying to beat the shift by hitting the ball into the seats. And big swings are often accompanied by big misses.

Pitchers are bigger, stronger, and throw harder than ever before. Pitchers who could throw 100 mph used to be a novelty. Now every team has one. Nobody wants to see teams combine for 25 strikeouts every night. So what is baseball to do?

Back in 1968, MLB decided to change the rules and lowered the pitcher's mound from 15 inches to 10 inches. The strike zone was also reduced to cover top of the knees to armpits–but you hardly ever see high strikes called any more. These moves added more than 1 run to every game.

Why did MLB act? Bob Gibson had one of the most dominant seasons ever for a pitcher, when he recorded a 1.12 ERA, the lowest ever for a starting pitcher in the modern era. Six other starting pitchers had ERAs below 2 in 1968.

Offense was way down as a result of all that great pitching. Carl Yastrzemski led the American League in hitting at .301, the lowest average ever for a batting champ. Seven teams hit .230 or less.

Maybe baseball needs to lower the mound again. Lowering the mound would also relieve stress on pitchers' arms, reducing injuries. Maybe MLB needs to do something even more radical, like move the mound back. Sixty feet, 6 inches is one of the best-know measurements in sports. Move the pitching rubber back 5 feet. What would happen? This calls for math. I can't math. But Alan Nathan, who researches the physics of baseball and is a professor emeritus at the University of Illinois, can. He explains it:

"Suppose a ball is released a distance Y from home plate at speed V and it takes a time T to get to home plate. Now compare with a pitch released at speed V1 at 55 ft that takes the same time T to get to home plate. Then V1=V*55/Y. For example, suppose the mound is moved back a whopping 5 ft, so that Y is 60. The V1 (the "perceived velocity") is V*55/60, so that a fastball released at 95 mph "looks like" only 87 mph, in the sense that flight time is the same as a pitch released at 55 ft at 87 mph. That's a very big effect, corresponding to a ~10% increase in flight time, or about 40 ms. And it's even [more dramatic] than that in that the amount of time the batter has to observe the pitch is, say, only about half the flight time, or about 200 ms. Now add 40 ms on to that and you get a 20% effect. Huge!"

If MLB wants more offense, moving the mound back might be worth considering. Anywhere between 2 and 5 feet should mean more runs. Or hitters could try to the old Wee Willie Keeler method and "hit em where they ain't" to beat the shift.