I'm Pretty Sure It's Over

The Phillies right now remind me of a boxer that has taken the beating of a lifetime. There are only so many punches a team can take before going down for good.

It's pointless to try and figure out which loss has been the most devastating of the season. But they've piled up over the last few weeks. Crappy defense, shaky bullpen work, questionable personnel moves, and bad baserunning did them in tonight. With the Braves beating Tampa tonight, the Phils are now 4.5 games out of first place with 31 games left.

But tonight's loss felt different. You felt like the Phils had a chance with Aaron Nola on the mound. Nola was terrific again tonight, allowing just 4 hits and 1 earned run in 7 innings with 8 strikeouts. But it was the defense from the free agent who was signed because he was such a good defensive first baseman (the deservedly maligned Carlos Santana) that led to the wheels falling off. With the Phils ahead 3-0 in the 7th, the Nats had runners on second and third with 1 out. Matt Wieters hit sharp groundball to Santana, who grabbed it just behind the bag and began to wind up to throw home. He uncorked the throw as he stepped on first to get the out, but the the throw sailed over catcher Jorge Alfaro's head, and 2 runs scored.

Tommy Hunter walked the leadoff hitter in the 9th, and everyone knows nothing bad EVER happens when you walk the leadoff guy in a 1-run game. Exit Hunter, enter Pat Neshek, who gave up a 2-run homer to Anthony Rendon on his 4th pitch. Phillie killer Ryan Zimmerman doubled, and scored when Jorge Alfaro tried to throw him out stealing third. Alfaro's throw zoomed into left field.

The Phils kind of rallied in the bottom of the 9th when Wilson Ramos doubled. The lumbering Ramos was replaced by pinch runner Vince Velasquez. Why Velasquez? Because manager Gabe Kapler took Rhys Hoskins out of the game for a defensive upgrade, replacing him with the speedy Roman Quinn. Who would you rather see on 2nd as the tying run, Velasquez or Quinn?

Jorge Alfaro lifted a fly ball to center for the second out, but Velasquez, a pitcher, left for third before the centerfielder actually caught the ball. Not great. Zimmerman noticed it immediately, the Nats appealed, and Velasquez was called out to end the game.

So many bad losses lately. So many chances to gain ground in the standings. Let's face it. The Phils were succeeding with smoke and mirrors through July. Nobody, and I mean nobody, expected them to be in first place for 4 weeks. They've lost 15 of the last 21. They haven't hit well, pitched well, and fielded well at the same time for consistent stretches over the course of the season. This isn't going to be a September to remember.

I thought this team had a chance to finish at .500 for the year if everything went right. They are 8 games over .500. Now that reality is setting in, it's time to forget about the playoffs and hope for .500 or better. Over the last 5 seasons, they have lost 96, 89, 99, 91, and 96 games. They're getting better. But they're not a playoff team. Not yet. Tonight proved it.