Prediction Time

With a week until the season finally starts, it's time to make some predictions. The graphic above comes from Fangraphs, a site dedicated to the analytics of baseball. They say the Phils will finish at .500 again. Rubbish.

After 60 games last year, the Phillies were 33-27, with having played the hapless Royals, Tigers, and Padres. They also had a half-game lead atop the division. This year's competition should be much tougher with only NL East and AL East opponents. 

But by June 3, the Phils had gotten a combined 12 starts from Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez. Pivetta had a deceiving 3-1 record in his six starts through 60 games. He sported a 6.14 ERA and an opponents OPS of .932. That's hideous. 

Velasquez was 2-3 over the same time period with a nearly as awful 4.67 ERA, and a .919 OPS against. He appeared in 11 games and was the starter in six of them. 

You have to think Zach Wheeler and Spencer Howard can put up better numbers than those two bozos. Add in the offense of Didi Gregorius, a full-time DH, and remove the baserunning blunders of Cesar Hernandez and the infuriating inconsistency of Maikel Franco, and you have a better team. How much better? Significantly. I think the Phils will win at least 34 games and make the playoffs provided everyone stays healthy.