They're going to need help from other teams, but it's absolutely imperative that they find a way to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays in Florida this weekend. The Rays have the best record in the American League and need at least two wins or two losses by the Twins to clinch the top seed in the AL.
There are still a couple of ways the Phils can get in.
- The Phils are a game behind Miami in the NL East. Overtake the Marlins and they're in. The Marlins are in the Bronx against the Yankees this weekend. New York has a chance to overtake the White Sox for the fourth seed by sweeping the Marlins. The White Sox host the Cubs, who could overtake Atlanta for the second seed in the NL by sweeping the Sox. The Braves are in Boston to play the lowly Red Sox.
- They need help from the Reds and Gabe Kapler's Giants, who currently hold the wild-card spots just above the Phillies. The Reds have three games in Minnesota against the Twins, who are fighting the Rays for the best record in the AL. The Giants host the Padres for three in San Francisco, and San Diego has already locked up the fourth seed in the NL.
Got all that?
The Phils open the series in Tampa tonight with Vince Velasquez, who needs to pitch the best game of his life. Zack Wheeler goes Saturday and Aaron Nola starts on Sunday. Even if they manage to sweep the Rays, there's no guarantee they'll get in. There's lots of moving parts. Fangraphs.com says the Phils have a 14.9 percent chance to finish second in the division, and a 36.3 percent shot to grab a wild card.
But like all big games, it's going to come down to the bullpen, which doesn't exactly give anyone a warm fuzzy feeling right now. Wheeler and Nola have the ability to take the game out of the bullpen's hands by pitching complete games. The best you can realistically hope for from Velasquez is about six innings. In his six starts this season, he's pitched into the sixth just twice.
Have the antacid ready, folks. It's going to be a stressful weekend.
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