Warning: Extremely geeky baseball content to follow.
Baseball Prospectus has released its PECOTA standings for the upcoming season. PECOTA is an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, a system for predicting MLB player performance. It's also a nod to longtime MLB infielder Bill Pecota, who played for the Royals, Mets, and Braves. BP runs thousands of simulations based on math I can't even begin to comprehend to get its results.
Anyway, back to the predictions. PECOTA has the Phillies third in the NL East with an 83-79 record with a 7.4 percent chance to win the division. Here's the NL rundown:
If that's too small to see, PECOTA has the Mets running away with the NL East with 95.5 wins. The Nationals are second at 85-77. I'm not sure why, but the Braves are fourth and the Marlins, are picked fifth.
PECOTA uses a player's past performance to project the most likely outcome for the season to come. It has the Phillies with a plus-50 run differential, which is nice. I'll dive into other projections once I get my subscription issues straightened out.
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